The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at UNISA projects that South Africa’s retail trade sales will rise by 7.0% in nominal terms and 2.0% in real terms in 2025. Despite ongoing economic challenges, the retail sector is expected to benefit from easing inflation, improving infrastructure, and a modest rebound in consumer spending.

Key Forecast Highlights:

• Total sales projected at R1.53 trillion in 2025.
• Strongest real growth expected in semi-durable goods (e.g., clothing, footwear, entertainment items).
• Food, beverages, and tobacco remain the largest spending category, accounting for nearly 50% of total spend.
• Durable goods expected to show the second-highest real growth.

Risks and Constraints:

• Ongoing energy and water supply issues, high unemployment, and global uncertainties pose risks to retail recovery.
• Household budgets remain under pressure due to lingering tight monetary conditions.

Retail Sector Megatrends:

• Black Friday and festive season events drive major sales spikes.
• E-commerce continues to grow, supported by mobile commerce and crypto payments.
• Consumers are shifting toward green products, connected devices, and premium lifestyle brands.
• Heavy reliance on imports makes the sector vulnerable to currency and global supply shocks.

Strategic Outlook:

The BMR emphasizes that digitally agile, value-driven retailers who embrace analytics, consumer engagement, and omnichannel strategies will be best positioned for success. Despite a fragile recovery, opportunities exist for innovation and transformation in a volatile economic landscape.

MACROECONOMIC AND RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 2025 (Research Report No 540) was compiled by Prof Paul Kibuuka (BMR Research Director), in collaboration with Prof Carel van Aardt (BMR Research Director) and Ms Jacolize Meiring (BMR Senior Researcher).

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