Macroeconomic and retail trade sales forecast for SA by PK Kibuuka and Prof C.J. van Aardt (2020)

This research report presents a forecast of formal retail sales for 2020. The 2020 forecast provides results derived from a probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model in addition to an exploration of the drivers of cash sales in the South African retail market and the methods of payment. The report features seasonal trend analyses and breakdowns of retail trade sales patterns according to outlet type. The research considers the prospects of both the global, regional and local economies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimates formal retail sales grow in nominal and real terms as well as average price increases in retail items for 2020.

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