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Follow our blogs to gain insights into contemporary market research and business intelligence trends relevant to consumers and business. The blogs serve as a platform for knowledge generation and sharing for those interested in household and personal wealth, demography and population, economic and business, consumer behaviour, and youth research. The blog supports life-long learning and collective generation of solutions related to contemporary community-related challenges impacting on South African individuals, society and regulatory environments.

Black Friday 2025 in South Africa: Who Will Win – Retail Giants or SMMEs?

Black Friday 2025 in South Africa: Who Will Win – Retail Giants or SMMEs?

By Prof Carel van Aardt and Dr Requier Wait

A Nation Hooked on Black November
Since its introduction in 2014, Black Friday has evolved from a single day of discounts into a month-long retail phenomenon known as Black November. It now merges seamlessly with the festive season, creating one of the most critical spending periods in South Africa’s retail calendar.

The 2024 Black Friday sales figures highlight the scale of this annual surge:

  • Consumers spent over R30 billion during Black Friday 2024 through just three major banks.
  • Online transactions averaged R935, nearly double in-store spending averages of R513, signalling South Africa’s growing digital confidence.
  • In total, November 2024 contributed more than R88 billion in economic value to the wholesale, retail, and fuel sectors.

With the 2025 Black Friday season now underway, one question stands out: Who will benefit most this year, South Africa’s retail giants or its SMMEs?

Why Retail Giants Still Rule
Large retailers continue to dominate through scale, infrastructure, and brand strength. They enter the Black Friday and festive sales seasons with deep supply chains, sophisticated logistics, and the financial muscle to absorb thinner profit margins in exchange for higher volumes and visibility.  Their competitive edge lies in:

  • Economies of scale: Strong supplier bargaining power and ability to run “loss leader” promotions.
  • Advanced logistics: Warehousing, distribution-, and last-mile delivery systems that ensure reliability.
  • Digital strength: Mature e-commerce platforms, mobile apps-, and “click & collect” options.
  • Consumer trust: For big-ticket items such as electronics, appliances-, and furniture, South Africans gravitate toward well-known brands that offer warranties and secure return policies.

For these retail giants, Black Friday is less about profit per sale and more about market share, visibility-, and long-term loyalty.

SMMEs’ Secret Weapons: Agility, Authenticity, and Connection
SMMEs cannot, and need not, compete rand-for-rand with corporate retailers. Their power lies in agility, personalisation, and local trust. In an economy marked by uncertainty, many South Africans consciously “buy local,” valuing authenticity over scale. SMMEs can win through:

  • Social media buzz: Leveraging WhatsApp groups, TikTok trends-, and Instagram flash deals to create real-time excitement.
  • Personal touch: Private previews, curated recommendations-, and same-day pickup or delivery.
  • Collaboration: Pooling logistics and marketing with fellow small retailers to amplify reach.
  • Eco-conscious and local appeal: Offering sustainable, locally made products that align with shifting consumer values.

Instead of competing on discount size, SMMEs can thrive by offering creativity, convenience-, and community connection.

The Challenges SMMEs Face
Despite these strengths, SMMEs face structural barriers that can limit growth during the Black Friday sales season:

  • Cash flow constraints: Heavy promotions and inventory build-up require upfront capital that many small businesses lack.
  • Limited logistics capacity: Deliveries and returns are more complex and costly at smaller scale.
  • Lower digital maturity: Some lack scalable e-commerce systems, robust hosting-, and secure payment tools.
  • Visibility issues: Competing against national advertising campaigns and influencer marketing remains a steep challenge.

Overcoming these obstacles will be crucial for small retailers seeking to capture more of the Black Friday and festive market sales value.

How Consumers Divide Their Spend Between the Large Retailers and SMMEs
South Africans display a clear spending pattern:

  • Big brands dominate big-ticket purchases, where trust and warranties matter: TVs, laptops, and appliances.
  • SMMEs shine in personal or lifestyle purchases, where experience and authenticity drive choice: boutique fashion, artisanal foods, and gifts.

This dual behaviour suggests that both segments can win, provided they focus on their natural strengths.

Final Word: Adaptation Will Decide the Winner
Black Friday 2025 is not simply about who discounts the deepest, but who delivers the most meaningful value. Retail giants will continue to lead in volume and reach, but SMMEs can carve out strong loyalty through digital innovation, personal service-, and purpose-driven branding. The real winners will be those who adapt fastest, and ultimately, the biggest beneficiary will be the South African consumer.

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Low Incomes, High Costs, and Present Bias: Why South Africans Struggle to Save

Low Incomes, High Costs, and Present Bias: Why South Africans Struggle to Save

By Prof Carel van Aardt and Ms Jacolize Meiring

Despite years of financial awareness campaigns, South African households continue to save very little. The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) data show that the ratio of household saving to disposable income has remained extremely low for many years. In some periods, households have even spent slightly more than they earned. This persistent low savings rate highlights the fragile financial position of many households and deeper structural weaknesses in the economy. Without a savings buffer, households remain vulnerable to financial shocks and ill-prepared for retirement. But why do South Africans save so little?

  • Low and uneven incomes
    Half of all South African households live in poverty, with unemployment and high living costs leaving little room to save after covering basic needs. Even middle-income earners feel the squeeze with rising prices, interest rates, and debt obligations. For many, saving seem like a luxury rather than a realistic habit.
  • Debt and easy credit
    Credit cards, store accounts, and personal loans make it easier to spend beyond one’s means. However, this often replaces saving instead of supporting it. As debt repayments mount, there’s little left to put aside for the future.
  • Present bias and social pressures
    Many people focus on immediate needs and social expectations rather than long-term goals. A “live for today” mindset, along with obligations to support extended families or maintain a certain lifestyle, keeps saving low. Cultural values that emphasise generosity can sometimes clash with the discipline required for personal saving.
  • Limited financial literacy
    Even when people can save, many lack the knowledge or confidence to make sound financial decisions. Mistrust in financial institutions, uncertainty about returns, and low awareness of saving tools like tax-free accounts hold people back. Financial education efforts are fragmented and reach too few South Africans.
  • Structural and policy constraints
    High unemployment, slow economic growth, and inflation all reduce the national saving pool. Government borrowing also absorbs much of the available capital, leaving less for private savings and investment.

What the data really shows
SARB’s household saving ratio measures disposable income minus consumption expenditure. It doesn’t fully capture informal saving through stokvels, burial societies, or property investment. Still, the trend is clear: measured household savings remain very low.

Building a savings culture Boosting savings will take time and coordinated effort. Progress depends on:

  • Higher incomes and job growth to give households the capacity to save.
  • Smarter saving systems, such as automatic deductions or matched contributions.
  • Wider access to affordable digital saving tools for low-income earners.
  • Better financial education in schools, workplaces, and communities.
  • Trust-building between people and financial institutions through transparency and consumer protection.

The Way Forward
While some households build wealth through property and pensions, the majority remain financially vulnerable. South Africa’s low savings culture unfortunately won’t change overnight and will require more than income growth. It will take coordinated action to improve financial inclusion, strengthen confidence, and nurture a genuine culture of long-term saving to help households build real financial resilience.

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Find out more about our Personal Finance Research Division

Inside the Numbers: What BMR’s Research Reveals About Online Child Sexual Exploitation

Inside the Numbers: What BMR’s Research Reveals About Online Child Sexual Exploitation

Recent headlines were filled with instances of child sexual exploitation, i.e. the Epstein saga and Virginia Giuffre’s posthumously published book. What is clear from such headlines is that the sexual exploitation of children is real, more widespread than often assumed, and that it has intensified over the years, particularly due to the increasing access and use of technology.

For the past 15 years, the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) has conducted research on online child sexual exploitation and has recently participated in the multi-country Disrupting Harm study, which investigated the sexual exploitation of children, with a particular focus on online sexual exploitation within the South African context. It became clear from this study that focused on internet using children aged between 12 and 17, that approximately 10 percent (one in ten) reported clear instances of online child sexual exploitation and abuse (OCSEA). Specific risks reported:

  • 19% had been asked to talk about sex or sexual acts with someone when they did not want to.
  • 17% had been asked to share sexual images of themselves.
  • 34% had been subject to sexual comments about them that made them uncomfortable in the past year.
  • 24% had been sent unwanted sexual images in the past year.

Given these deeply concerning statistics, an important question arises regarding the underlying drivers of child sexual exploitation, specifically the factors or perceived benefits that may motivate perpetrators to commit these crimes. From a behavioural economics perspective, based on principles similar to those outlined in Freakonomics, individuals respond to perceived incentives, benefits and pay-offs. Evidence from research and AI analyses indicates that perpetrators of child sexual exploitation are influenced by various underlying motivations. These motivations can be broadly grouped into the following categories:

  • Sexual gratification: Driven by deviant arousal, paedophilic interest, or excitement from power and control.
  • Power and control: Desire to dominate and instill fear, similar to dynamics seen in domestic abuse.
  • Emotional or narcissistic needs: Using children to fulfil emotional voids or boost self-image through manipulation.
  • Financial gain: Profit from trafficking, forced sexual services involving children, production, and sale of child sexual abuse material (CSAM).
  • Exchange and status: Abuse material is traded within hidden networks, creating a digital economy where exploitation serves as currency for access or status.
  • Deviant community belonging: Seeking acceptance and reinforcement within online offender groups.
  • Status and recognition: Gaining prestige within offender networks by producing or sharing new abuse material.
  • Cognitive and psychological distortions: Justifying abuse through denial, minimisation, or claims of child “consent.”
  • Criminal opportunism: Exploiting weak systems, poverty, and poor online safeguards.

Recommended multi-layer strategies for preventing online child sexual exploitation and abuse

Considering what we know about the prevalence and complex underlying drivers of child sexual exploitation, multi-layered strategies are needed to prevent abuse, disrupt perpetrators, and protect children from harm. Based on the findings of the Disrupting Harm study, the following key strategic actions recommended for South Africa:

  • Raise awareness among children, parents, and caregivers of the risks of sexual exploitation of children, how to recognise it and how to respond safely.
  • Strengthen children’s digital and online safety skills.
  • Enhance and promote formal reporting systems, so that children are aware of them and feel safe to disclose without fear or stigma.
  • Empower law enforcement and justice systems with the resources, skills and partnerships needed to unit sectors in coordinated action.
  • Foster multi‐sectoral partnerships to implement comprehensive national responses.
  • Ensure that perpetrators face consequences in a manner that strongly deters both current and potential child sexual exploiters.

Authors:
Prof Carel van Aardt, Dr Antoinette Basson and Ms Pamela de Jongh.

Source:
ECPAT, INTERPOL, and UNICEF. (2022). Disrupting Harm in South Africa: Evidence on Online Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse.Global Partnership to End Violence against Children. Copyright © ECPAT, End Violence Partnership, INTERPOL, UNICEF, 2022.

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Find out more about our Youth Research Unit

Understanding What Really Shapes South African Consumer Choices

Understanding What Really Shapes South African Consumer Choices

To celebrate 65 years of providing trusted insights, the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) has released a new study that uncovers what truly influences the choices South Africans make when they spend their money.

More than just price
For a long time, people thought shopping decisions were mainly about price. But this new research shows that’s no longer the case. Today, our feelings, values, dreams, and whether we trust a brand play just as big a role as cost – and sometimes even bigger.  The findings show that South Africans are not just buying things – they’re buying into what brands stand for. As Dr Antoinette Basson, Head of the Behavioural Sciences Research Division, explains: ‘Today’s consumers are not simply acquiring goods; they are engaging with the meaning and identity behind the brand.’” 

What the study looked at
The survey spoke to more than 1,000 consumers across the country and found that consumer buying decisions are shaped by eight main factors:


What it means for everyday consumers
The BMR study shows that emotions and values affect buying decisions differently depending on certain personal characteristics and what people are shopping for:

  • Education, technology, and tourism – In these areas, people are strongly influenced by emotions, aspirations, and trust. Choosing a school, a new phone, or a holiday is about more than cost – it’s about the brand’s reputation and how much confidence and inspiration a brand gives you.
  • Groceries, everyday retail, and healthcare – In these areas, people are more focused on price, habit, and practicality. But even here, trust and a sense of emotional connection with a brand still make a difference.  For example, many families choose food brands they’ve trusted for years.
  • Younger people and women are more likely to be swayed by brands they trust and that inspire them emotionally.
  • Older consumers are generally more practical, focusing on value for money and good service.
  • People in different provinces have unique preferences, reflecting South Africa’s diversity and that community values play a big role in decision-making.

Dr Jacolize Poalses, Senior Researcher at BMR, highlights: “South Africans are diverse, and so are their shopping habits. People want to see their own lives and values reflected in the brands they support. Companies that respect and understand this diversity will build the strongest and longest-lasting connections.”

In short, shopping is no longer just about what you buy.  While price and function still count, it’s also about whether you feel the brand understands and values you. For South African households, this means you’ll likely notice more companies trying to connect with you in more meaningful ways – not just through discounts or promotions, but by showing cultural awareness, ethical practices and a sense of purpose.

For more information please Contact Us

Find out more about our Behavioural Science Research Division

Who is homo digitalis: The rapid ascent of the digital consumer

Who is homo digitalis: The rapid ascent of the digital consumer

As technology, connectivity, and culture converge, homo digitalis emerges as the defining consumer of our time. Knowing who they are, and what drives them, is essential for every retailer competing in South Africa’s fast-growing digital economy.

Background
In the course of evolution of humankind there was homo heidelbergensis followed by homo sapiens, and then homo economicus (if the classic and new-classic economists are to be believed) followed by the newest phase of human development, namely homo digitalis.

The term ‘homo digitalis’ refers to digital humankind where humankind is increasingly digitally connected and living in multiple realities (online and offline) in a digital ecosystem. In this digital ecosystem homo digitalis are shaped by digital culture, they obtain digital identities (i.e. e-mail addresses and cell phone numbers), they experience that artificial intelligence (AI) and technological connectivity are integrated into their human experience, while digital culture fosters new systems of beliefs, values and norms among them.

Rapid ascent of the digital consumer
Recent data from the Media and All Product Survey (MAPS) and DataReportal illustrate that homo digitalis is widespread in South Africa. The statistics paint a clear picture of a society deeply embedded in digital connectivity:

  • There are 124 million cellular mobile connections in South Africa which is indicative of the high level of digital connectedness of homo digitalis.
  • 78% of South Africans 15 years and older are active internet users.
  • 76.2% of South Africans 15 years and older have smartphones.
  • 60.0% of South Africans 15 years and older are active social media users.

A growing number of South Africa’s homo digitalis conduct online shopping. According to MAPS this figure stood at 9.1% during 2025. According to MAPS the five biggest motivators for purchasing online in order of importance are:

  • Free delivery (46.2%).
  • Easy online checkout processes (28.2%).
  • Coupons and discounts (27.2%).
  • Easy returns policies (18.2%).
  • Reviews from other customers (16.4%).

Apart from the motivators mentioned above, other important reasons why South Africa’s homo digitalis are shopping online include that consumer habits and expectations are changing, namely consumers are increasingly used to convenient online shopping where they can on a 24/7 basis browse, compare, click and request delivery. Furthermore, online customer experiences are often much better than in-store experiences as they do not have to travel to shops, they have a much bigger variety to choose from, and they can compare prices from multiple shops before making a purchasing decision.

Online shopping also allows the use of more secure, diverse payment methods (cards, mobile money, e-wallets, as well as “buy now pay later” options). As a result, consumers perceive lower levels of risk, which in turn encourages them to make more online purchases.

Finally, online shopping provides consumers with access to goods not stocked locally. This gives rise to an increase in consumer choices.

For South African retailers to capitalize on the online retail market, estimated to be worth R130 billion (10% of retail income) in 2025, there are certain things that need to be done to capture the hearts, minds and purses of homo digitalis, namely:

  • To provide online sales, it is firstly necessary to have good online e-commerce facilities. Given that the reachable market for e-commerce is still growing, this is a very necessary first step investment to increase sales.
  • Upon having an e-commerce facility, it is important to ensure that the website and/or apps used are slick coupled with aggressive promotions via the said website, apps media (and here especially via social media).
  • Capitalize on vastly improved courier services, pick-up points and faster delivery options. These improvements have created a vast, speedy and relatively low-cost delivery network which can be capitalized on for own online sales.
  • Online retailers should also benefit from locally-tuned gateways and Buy Now, Pay Later (Payflex, PayJustNow, Mobicred, etc.) which lower the upfront cost and perceived risk of first-time purchases, nudging checkout conversion upward. Such systems also allow online retailers in South Africa to not just focus on the South African retail market but also on a global market.
  • By introducing omnichannel offerings, e-commerce is being integrated with stores with the implication that customers can shop where it is easiest.

Conclusion
Given the increasing number of homo digitalis and their growing participation in online shopping, it is worth asking what the future trends for homo digitalis might be. These include:

  • The online share of retail sales will increase rapidly in value and percentage terms during the next few years whereafter it will climb gradually as logistics densify, and promotions normalise. 
  • Lockers/pickup points will spread further, and here especially in townships and smaller towns.
  • Payments will become increasingly more flexible.
  • As grocery and fashion continue to anchor online retail, advancements in delivery efficiency and strategies that encourage repeat purchases will contribute to the steady expansion of the homo digitalis population, most notably among online shoppers. 

Marketing in the online space is slowly but surely shifting to value instead of a pure focus on low prices and discounts.

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BMR/UNISA Economist of the Year – September 2025 Estimates

South Africa’s Economy Holds Firm, but Employment Growth Remains Modest

The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at Unisa released its latest predictions for the South African economy as part of the Economist of the Year (EoY) competition. Using ten key predictor variables, the results reveal a picture of slow but steady stabilisation in economic indicators between February and September 2025.

Prof Carel van Aardt, EoY Project Lead, noted: “While South Africa continues to face challenges such as low growth and currency volatility, the forecasts show encouraging signs of resilience. Household expenditure and inflation expectations remain relatively stable, and the employment outlook, though modest, has avoided the steep contractions we feared earlier in the year.”

Key Highlights

Between February and September 2025, the picture is one of softening growth both globally and domestically, accompanied by easing inflationary pressures and a cautious shift in monetary policy. For South Africa:

  • The domestic economy is losing momentum, particularly in consumption expenditure and job creation.
  • Inflation relief and marginal rate cuts provide some breathing space, but growth constraints remain.
  • External balances have improved due to cheaper oil and a slightly stronger rand, partially offsetting global headwinds.

This period reflects a transition from high inflation and tight policy toward a weaker growth environment with modest stabilization in financial conditions.

The Value of the Economist of the Year Competition

The BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year Competition remains a cornerstone of South Africa’s economic thought leadership. By challenging top economists to forecast key indicators, the initiative:

  • Promotes analytical excellence in economic modelling,
  • Provides the public and private sector with valuable decision-making insights.
  • Strengthens South Africa’s ability to anticipate and prepare for changing global and domestic conditions.

Prof Deon Tustin, CEO of the Bureau of Market Research, added: “The Economist of the Year Competition not only strengthens our understanding of current and future economic dynamics but also sharpens the predictive capacity of economists across the country. These insights help decision-makers in business, government and society navigate an increasingly uncertain economic landscape.” The 2025 results highlight both the difficulties and opportunities facing the economy – underscoring the importance of sound forecasting in shaping the country’s future.

Find out more about the Economist of the Year Competition

Perceptions and Projections: The South African Economy Beyond the Braai Fire

Perceptions and projections: The South African economy beyond the braai fire

Conversations around South African braai fires are rarely short of opinions on the economy. However, the tone is almost uniformly gloomy. Friends and neighbours lament the “bad state” of things: collapsing infrastructure, dysfunctional municipalities, relentless crime, high prices, interest rates that bite and jobs that never seem to materialise. Household finances feel increasingly fragile, and few believe that government has the capacity or will to turn the tide.

But is this collective pessimism grounded in economic reality? Or is there a disconnect between what South Africans experience in their daily lives and what the data suggest? To interrogate this, the BMR compared the “braai talk” narrative with the forecasts of professional economists competing in the BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year (EoY) 2025 competition. The differences are striking.

Prices: unaffordable reality or inflation in check?
At the braai, the refrain is that “everything is becoming unaffordable.” Yet the EoY economists forecast inflation at just 3.5% for 2025, which is comfortably within the Reserve Bank’s target and well below the levels that typically drive widespread hardship.

The Rand: weakening or strengthening?
Another staple of braai pessimism is the Rand’s supposed perpetual decline against the US dollar. The currency indeed did touch R18.92/$ in January 2025, but by the fourth quarter, economists expect it to average at R17.80/$. This means a notable strengthening of the local currency. Such nuance rarely filters into everyday conversation.

Growth and jobs: free fall or fragile expansion?
South Africans often speak as though the economy is in free fall, dragging employment down with it. Professional forecasts tell a different story: both GDP and employment are expected to grow by 0.9% this year. This is certainly modest, but it remains growth nonetheless.

Fuel: relentless climb or imminent relief?
Perhaps no topic generates more heat than fuel prices. The perception is of an unstoppable upward climb. Yet forecasts suggest otherwise: Brent crude is expected to average $67.08 a barrel in the final quarter of 2025, down sharply from $82.39 in January 2025. Coupled with a stronger Rand, this points toward relief at the pumps.

Households: pinched wallets or rising expenditure?
Few sentiments are more widespread than the belief that households are being squeezed ever tighter. And while many certainly feel this way, the EoY economists project real household expenditure growth of 1.7% in 2025. It is not a consumption boom, but evidence that households, in aggregate, are spending slightly more in real terms.

Why the gap between braai talk and economic forecasts?
If the EoY economists see a mildly improving landscape, why does the public narrative lean so heavily toward despair? One explanation is behavioural rather than economic. Economists work with models, probabilities, and data. Ordinary South Africans experience the economy viscerally: through their wallets, workplaces, and daily struggles. When expectations of progress remain unmet year after year, pessimism becomes the default lens.

Behavioural scientists call this the tension between lived experience and analytical frameworks. The one is immediate, emotional, and tangible, while the other is abstract, probabilistic, and detached. Neither is inherently wrong. Indeed, history shows that collective sentiment, however unscientific, can sometimes signal economic outcomes before the data catches up.

The takeaway
The braai talk is not baseless, but it risks casting a darker shadow than the data warrant. Economists participating in the BMR/Unisa EoY competition are not predicting a boom, but they do foresee stability and modest gains instead of collapse. Ultimately, South Africa’s economic reality lies somewhere between the lived pessimism of the braai and the measured and cautious optimism of the economic models. The challenge for policymakers, business leaders, and households alike is to bridge this gap by ensuring that the improvements seen in the data translate into lived experiences that feel just as real.

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What can Businesses do to Survive and Thrive in a Very Volatile Economy?

What can Businesses do to Survive and Thrive in a Very Volatile Economy?

It is clear that domestically and globally the number of economic, political and social uncertainties have escalated dramatically since the beginning of this year. Contributing factors to such uncertainties include, inter alia, the USA tariffs and new socio-political-economic ideologies, escalating geo-political conflicts, volatile (jittery) financial markets in addition to new global economic, political alliances and realities.

In such an uncertain world with a wide variety of exogenous factors impacting businesses due to the prevailing volatilities, the question could be asked as to whether there are actions that businesses could take to mitigate such factors or even grow as a result.

Let us consider five of the most important exogenous factors negatively impacting businesses in South Africa as identified by business respondents in the Absa/SACCI/BMR Small Business Growth Index (SBGI) survey conducted during the first half of 2025. These five exogenous factors include:

  • Increased competition.
  • Limited access to finance and funding.
  • Inflation, rising costs and reduced consumer spending.
  • Load shedding and rising energy costs, and
  • Infrastructure breakdowns.

It appears at first glance that there is very little that businesses, and here especially SMMEs, can do to mitigate or survive under the five exogenous factors mentioned above. It is, however, important to note that many small businesses are already mitigating the impact of these factors effectively and are even growing because of these interventions.

In this regard it is important to recognize that South African small businesses are operating in a very volatile environment marked by rising energy costs, inflation, exchange rate volatility, supply chain disruptions, political and economic volatilities nationally and locally in addition to shifting regulations, which are most probably here to stay for quite a while. Having acknowledged their presence, the plausible approach is not to avoid them because that is impossible, but rather to build resilience through:

  • Diversification of revenue and supply: It is important to penetrate multiple markets instead of depending heavily on one major client or one geographic market.  By seeking new customer bases, risk is being distributed. As regards supplier resilience, having multiple suppliers (both local and international) cushions against supply shocks, like import bottlenecks or strikes at local ports.
  • Financial Buffers and Flexibility: It is very important to build emergency reserves although it is indeed tough to do so, but even a modicum of savings buy time in a crisis. Furthermore, establishing good credit relationships with banks, Fintechs or stokvel-like savings groups gives breathing room when revenues dip suddenly. Businesses with foreign currency exposure can use forward contracts or simply diversify inputs to avoid being trapped by rand volatility.
  • Technology and Innovation: Investing in solar generators and/or battery systems mitigates against load-shedding and high electricity prices. Some small businesses are even pooling resources to share backup infrastructure. Also, online platforms (for sales, marketing, payments) reduce dependence on physical disruptions like fuel price hikes. Furthermore, streamlining operations lowers overheads, so exogenous challenges hit a leaner cost base.
  • Networks and Collective Action: Joining chambers of commerce, local business forums, or sector-specific bodies gives collective bargaining power, early warnings and shared lobbying efforts. Furthermore, cooperatives or shared-service hubs allow businesses to pool costs for logistics, storage, or even staff training.
  • Strategic Risk Management: Scenario planning is of critical importance, i.e. even simple “what if” exercises help owners anticipate shocks, i.e. “If load shedding comes back tomorrow, what do we do?” It is not just planning that is important, but risk active mitigation as well. That includes insurance cover for property damage, business interruption and political risk. Although such insurance is not always cheap, it protects against catastrophic loss. Furthermore, staying up-to-date with regulatory changes avoids sudden fines or disruptions.
  • Human Capital development: When disruptions strike, multi-skilled employees can shift roles to keep things moving. Investing in digital and financial literacy makes employees part of the resilience strategy. Businesses that empower employees to improvise during crises bounce back faster.

Conclusion
It is important to emphasize that exogenous challenges will not just go away. But small businesses that diversify, digitize, collectivize, network and cultivate adaptability tend to weather exogenous challenges like the five mentioned above much better. In South Africa, where volatility is inherently part of the business landscape, resilience itself becomes a competitive advantage.

This insight raises a very important question: “Should small businesses merely aim to mitigate exogenous challenges by becoming more resilient or can they exploit such volatility as an opportunity (i.e. importing when the rand is strong) to capitalize on resilience to ensure business growth?”

We welcome your comments and invite you to share your views on our Facebook page.

Find out more about our Economic Research Division

BMR/UNISA Economist of the Year – August 2025 Estimates

Economists Signal Softer Growth Outlook Amid Mixed Economic Forecasts

The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at Unisa has released the latest update of the Economist of the Year (EoY) Competition, reflecting the shifts in all ten economic variables being forecasted between February and August 2025. These variables span both global and domestic dynamics shaping South Africa’s economy in 2025.

According to Prof Carel van Aardt, Project Lead of the Economist of the Year Competition: “We’ve seen a general downward revision of GDP growth expectations since the start of the year, coupled with slight easing in inflation and marginal improvements in the current account balance. The resilience of employment growth, though modest, remains encouraging in a low-growth environment.”

BMR CEO Prof Deon Tustin highlighted the importance of this platform: “The Economist of the Year Competition offers far more than an annual award. It is a trusted lens into the economic outlook of the country, one that reflects the best thinking of leading economists and informs business, government, and the general public.” The August 2025 median consensus for South Africa’s key economic indicators is shown below, with reflections on how these forecasts have shifted since February 2025:


Summary of forecast changes since February 2025

Economists have generally revised their forecasts downward since the start of the year:

  • Growth expectations for both South Africa and the world economy have softened, with domestic GDP growth trimmed from 1.5% in February to 0.9% in August.
  • Inflation and interest rates show gradual easing, signalling lower price pressures and opening the way for some monetary easing.
  • The Rand has held firmer against the dollar despite global uncertainties, while oil prices have declined, offering some relief for businesses and consumers.
  • Household spending projections remain stable, though modest, and government bond yields are steady, reflecting persistent fiscal pressures.
  • The current account deficit narrowed slightly, providing a small improvement in external balances.
  • Employment growth forecasts weakened slightly, suggesting limited job creation in the second half of the year.

These adjustments reflect cautious optimism tempered by recognition of structural challenges, global headwinds and the persistent presence of a large number of downside risks both globally and nationally to economic growth.

The value proposition of the Competition

The BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year Competition is the benchmark for evaluating economic forecasting in South Africa. By drawing together diverse views, it:

  • Promotes forecasting excellence among professional economists.
  • Provides transparency on shifting expectations.
  • Equips decision-makers in business, government, and civil society with credible insights.
  • Strengthens public understanding of how global and local forces shape everyday life.

As Prof Tustin concluded: “The competition builds accountability in economic forecasting and enhances the dialogue on South Africa’s economic prospects. Its value lies not only in recognising individual excellence but in serving the nation with clarity and foresight.”

Find out more about the Economist of the Year Competition

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