BMR/UNISA Economist of the Year – September 2025 Estimates
South Africa’s Economy Holds Firm, but Employment Growth Remains Modest
The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at Unisa released its latest predictions for the South African economy as part of the Economist of the Year (EoY) competition. Using ten key predictor variables, the results reveal a picture of slow but steady stabilisation in economic indicators between February and September 2025.
Prof Carel van Aardt, EoY Project Lead, noted: “While South Africa continues to face challenges such as low growth and currency volatility, the forecasts show encouraging signs of resilience. Household expenditure and inflation expectations remain relatively stable, and the employment outlook, though modest, has avoided the steep contractions we feared earlier in the year.”
Key Highlights
Between February and September 2025, the picture is one of softening growth both globally and domestically, accompanied by easing inflationary pressures and a cautious shift in monetary policy. For South Africa:
- The domestic economy is losing momentum, particularly in consumption expenditure and job creation.
- Inflation relief and marginal rate cuts provide some breathing space, but growth constraints remain.
- External balances have improved due to cheaper oil and a slightly stronger rand, partially offsetting global headwinds.
This period reflects a transition from high inflation and tight policy toward a weaker growth environment with modest stabilization in financial conditions.
The Value of the Economist of the Year Competition
The BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year Competition remains a cornerstone of South Africa’s economic thought leadership. By challenging top economists to forecast key indicators, the initiative:
- Promotes analytical excellence in economic modelling,
- Provides the public and private sector with valuable decision-making insights.
- Strengthens South Africa’s ability to anticipate and prepare for changing global and domestic conditions.
Prof Deon Tustin, CEO of the Bureau of Market Research, added: “The Economist of the Year Competition not only strengthens our understanding of current and future economic dynamics but also sharpens the predictive capacity of economists across the country. These insights help decision-makers in business, government and society navigate an increasingly uncertain economic landscape.” The 2025 results highlight both the difficulties and opportunities facing the economy – underscoring the importance of sound forecasting in shaping the country’s future.