Perceptions and projections: The South African economy beyond the braai fire

Conversations around South African braai fires are rarely short of opinions on the economy. However, the tone is almost uniformly gloomy. Friends and neighbours lament the “bad state” of things: collapsing infrastructure, dysfunctional municipalities, relentless crime, high prices, interest rates that bite and jobs that never seem to materialise. Household finances feel increasingly fragile, and few believe that government has the capacity or will to turn the tide.

But is this collective pessimism grounded in economic reality? Or is there a disconnect between what South Africans experience in their daily lives and what the data suggest? To interrogate this, the BMR compared the “braai talk” narrative with the forecasts of professional economists competing in the BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year (EoY) 2025 competition. The differences are striking.

Prices: unaffordable reality or inflation in check?
At the braai, the refrain is that “everything is becoming unaffordable.” Yet the EoY economists forecast inflation at just 3.5% for 2025, which is comfortably within the Reserve Bank’s target and well below the levels that typically drive widespread hardship.

The Rand: weakening or strengthening?
Another staple of braai pessimism is the Rand’s supposed perpetual decline against the US dollar. The currency indeed did touch R18.92/$ in January 2025, but by the fourth quarter, economists expect it to average at R17.80/$. This means a notable strengthening of the local currency. Such nuance rarely filters into everyday conversation.

Growth and jobs: free fall or fragile expansion?
South Africans often speak as though the economy is in free fall, dragging employment down with it. Professional forecasts tell a different story: both GDP and employment are expected to grow by 0.9% this year. This is certainly modest, but it remains growth nonetheless.

Fuel: relentless climb or imminent relief?
Perhaps no topic generates more heat than fuel prices. The perception is of an unstoppable upward climb. Yet forecasts suggest otherwise: Brent crude is expected to average $67.08 a barrel in the final quarter of 2025, down sharply from $82.39 in January 2025. Coupled with a stronger Rand, this points toward relief at the pumps.

Households: pinched wallets or rising expenditure?
Few sentiments are more widespread than the belief that households are being squeezed ever tighter. And while many certainly feel this way, the EoY economists project real household expenditure growth of 1.7% in 2025. It is not a consumption boom, but evidence that households, in aggregate, are spending slightly more in real terms.

Why the gap between braai talk and economic forecasts?
If the EoY economists see a mildly improving landscape, why does the public narrative lean so heavily toward despair? One explanation is behavioural rather than economic. Economists work with models, probabilities, and data. Ordinary South Africans experience the economy viscerally: through their wallets, workplaces, and daily struggles. When expectations of progress remain unmet year after year, pessimism becomes the default lens.

Behavioural scientists call this the tension between lived experience and analytical frameworks. The one is immediate, emotional, and tangible, while the other is abstract, probabilistic, and detached. Neither is inherently wrong. Indeed, history shows that collective sentiment, however unscientific, can sometimes signal economic outcomes before the data catches up.

The takeaway
The braai talk is not baseless, but it risks casting a darker shadow than the data warrant. Economists participating in the BMR/Unisa EoY competition are not predicting a boom, but they do foresee stability and modest gains instead of collapse. Ultimately, South Africa’s economic reality lies somewhere between the lived pessimism of the braai and the measured and cautious optimism of the economic models. The challenge for policymakers, business leaders, and households alike is to bridge this gap by ensuring that the improvements seen in the data translate into lived experiences that feel just as real.

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