Mid-2025 Population Projections for South Africa
Addressing the current uncertainty regarding the true size and distribution of the south African population by publishing mid-2025 population projections for South Africa by province, district municipality, local municipality, main-place and sub-place
Given that many critical questions were aimed at the accuracy of available population estimates during the past few years, detailed population estimates of greatest likelihood are required to provide certainty in this regard. To ensure that population estimates of greatest likelihood become available The Bureau of Market Research (Pty) Ltd (BMR) at the University of South Africa (Unisa) recently released its latest mid-2025 population projections report for South Africa, authored by Dr Joshua Kembo (Head: Population Research Division), with key inputs from Professor Carel van Aardt (Chief Operating Officer).
This comprehensive report presents population estimates across multiple geographic layers from provinces and district municipalities down to local municipalities, main-places and sub-places providing granular insights into the spatial distribution of South Africa’s population. These projections aim to update and expand the population evidence base at highly disaggregated levels, providing a detailed understanding of where population concentrations lie across the country. With this level of geographic detail, stakeholders are equipped to make more precise and locally informed decisions.
According to the report, South Africa’s total population is projected to reach 63.9 million by mid-2025. At the provincial level, Gauteng remains the most populous province with an estimated 15.7 million people (24.5%), while the Northern Cape continues to have the smallest population, estimated at 1.4 million (2.2%). In terms of population group composition, Black Africans are projected to make up 82.3% of the total population and Indians/Asians 2.6%. The report also provides detailed estimates by age and sex, with females accounting for approximately 51% of the population by mid-2025. The data suggest a gradual demographic shift toward an ageing population, while still retaining a strong youth cohort.
ESTIMATES OF THE MID-2025 POPULATION AT THE NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEVELS
The report ranks the top 30 most populous metropolitan and district municipalities as of mid-2025. Uthukela District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal is ranked 30th with an estimated 816 756 persons, while the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality in Gauteng tops the list with a population of 5 878 544 persons. Among local municipalities, Polokwane in Limpopo emerges as the most populous, with 937 281 persons. On the other end of the scale, Laingsburg in the Northern Cape is the least populated local municipality, with 9 710 persons, closely followed by Khâi-Ma (11 401), Kamiesberg (11 925), and Renosterberg (12 205) all located within the same province.
The report highlights the significance of population projections as a foundation for evidence-based planning across both public and private sectors by providing the said distributional population estimates but also by providing information on population megatrends in South Africa such as population aging, decreasing levels of fertility, relatively high levels of inter-provincial migration and continuing urbanization (and metrofication) in South Africa. These estimates support effective service delivery planning, particularly in areas such as healthcare, education, housing and infrastructure, while also informing private sector marketing strategies and investment decisions. A key strength of this report lies in its ability to provide high-resolution population data of greatest likelihood at main-place and sub-place levels, enabling stakeholders to tailor interventions and strategies to specific geographic communities.
MID-2025 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA (Research Report No 544) was compiled by Dr Joshua Kembo (Head: Population Research Division) with key inputs from Prof Carel van Aardt (Chief Operating Officer).
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