Economists cite persistent structural constraints, global geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty as growth barriers.

Key July 2025 consensus forecasts vs. February 2025:

• GDP growth: 1.0% (▼ 0.5pp) – steady but subdued.
• Inflation (CPI): 3.7% (▼ 0.4pp) – well below SARB midpoint.
• Prime rate: 10.5% (▼ 0.3pp) – expectations for monetary easing.
• Rand/USD: R17.87 (▲ R0.13 strengthening).
• Brent crude oil: $68 (▼ $6) – easing imported inflation.
• Household expenditure growth: 1.7% (▼ 0.1pp) – stable.
• Long-term bond yield: 10.40% (▲ 0.1pp) – slight rise amid volatility.
• Current account deficit: -1.6% GDP (▲ 0.2pp improvement).
• Global GDP growth: 2.5% (▼ 0.4pp) – continued slowdown.
• Employment growth: 0.9% (▼ 0.2pp) – softer labour outlook.

BMR COO Prof. Carel van Aardt says weak sentiment is entrenched due to energy, infrastructure, logistics, and policy challenges. The Economist of the Year Competition aggregates forecasts from 40 leading economists monthly to track key indicators.

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