MID-2024 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA BY PROVINCE, DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY, LOCAL MUNICIPALITY, MAIN-PLACE AND SUB-PLACE

It was recently highlighted by the leader of one of the major political parties that although there are more than 40 million South Africans 18 years of age and older, only 27.79 million are registered to vote. The big question is whether this difference can be attributed to voter apathy, incorrect population estimates or a combination of both?

Population projections serve as a solid foundation to assess voting incidence and patterns in South African elections. They provide a picture of greatest likelihood of the size and distribution of the population eligible to vote, which is crucial for understanding voter turnout and engagement. From a fiscal perspective, accurate and updated population figures are essential for equitable fiscal distribution. These figures ensure that resources are allocated efficiently and fairly across various provinces based on the population’s needs. Population estimates of greatest likelihood are especially vital for setting up the National Health Insurance Fund (NHI) in South Africa. Accurate data helps in planning and distributing health resources effectively, ensuring that all areas receive adequate healthcare services based on their population size and needs.

Furthermore, businesses and marketers rely on accurate population data to make informed product and marketing decisions down to a sub-place level. Without accurate distributional figures, weak business strategies result giving rise to business losses and closures. Therefore, having reliable and granular population figures is imperative for successful business decision-making and operations.

To guide government and business in addressing these issues, the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) has recently released a report providing insights into distributional population figures configured down to a sub-place level. Dr Joshua Kembo (Senior Researcher) and Professor Carel van Aardt (Research Director) from the BMR at the University of South Africa (Unisa), published the report on population projections for South Africa by province, district municipality, local municipality, main-place, and sub-place as of mid-2024.

The report was compiled to provide strategic insights to government and business on updated population statistics by main and sub-place levels. By conducting population estimates down to such a local level of aggregation, it became clear where the population concentrations in South Africa are. Publishing population estimates at the municipal, main-place, and sub-place levels in South Africa provide valuable insights for government and business planning, resource allocation, and strategic decision-making.

The BMR estimates the total South African population as at mid-2024 to be 63.1 million people. The provincial breakdown indicates that Gauteng remains the most populous province with an estimated population of 15.4 million people (24.3%), while Northern Cape remains the least populous province with an estimated total population size of 1.4 million people (2.2%), as at mid-2024. Likewise, the percentages of the population group composition are estimated to be 81.8% for Black Africans and 2.7% for Indians/Asians at mid‐2024. Besides the cohort analyses by province and population group, the BMR report further provides population estimates by age-sex structure, with females projected to constitute 51% of the mid-2024 population. The analyses also reveal a gradually ageing population, while still maintaining a significant youth base.

Key population themes emerging from the BMR mid-2024 population estimates:

• Higher male mortality rate: The BMR report highlights that men have a higher mortality rate compared to women. This finding has significant implications for public health planning and resource allocation, emphasising the need for targeted health interventions for men.
• Impact of labour migration: Many smaller geographic areas in South Africa experience a lower percentage of adult men due to labour migration. This demographic trend impacts local economies and alters the demographic composition, necessitating tailored economic and social strategies for these areas.
• Youth population trends: The base of the population pyramid, representing persons aged 0-14 years, remains broad, indicating a sustained inflow of young South Africans into the population matrix. Despite high unemployment and poverty rates, the share of the total population aged 0-14 years has experienced a slight increase. This trend presents both challenges and opportunities for job creation and economic stability, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to harness the potential of this growing demographic.
• Ageing population: There is a noticeable increase in the older age groups, particularly those over 65 years. This segment has expanded, with a notable rise in the 65-69 age group and a stable, yet significant population, of those aged 80 years and above. The higher female representation in these older age categories highlights the need for gender-specific health and social services. The ageing population trend calls for proactive socioeconomic planning to ensure sustainable development, balancing the needs of both the youth and the elderly.
• Workforce dynamics: The sustained yet declining youthful base indicates that while the immediate workforce replenishment is secure, the gradual ageing of the population will require strategic workforce planning. Focusing on youth skills development is crucial to offset the impending retirements of the older working-age population.
• Social services: The broad base of the youth population and the expanding elderly segment will require diversified social services. These services need to cater to dynamic needs, such as educational resources for the young and healthcare and social support for the elderly.

• Provincial population trends: The provincial population data reveals significant trends crucial for planning and development. Gauteng continues to grow robustly, maintaining its status as the most populous province. KwaZulu-Natal also shows consistent population growth. In contrast, the Eastern Cape and Northern Cape have experienced stable but slower growth, with the Northern Cape remaining the least populous province. The Western Cape exhibits steady growth, likely driven by economic factors. Mpumalanga and Limpopo have seen substantial growth, attributed to developing infrastructure and economic potential. These trends emphasise the need for tailored provincial policies to address specific needs and leverage opportunities, ensuring balanced and sustainable development across South Africa.

The BMR report further articulates that, of the 30 largest metropolitan and district municipalities in South Africa as of mid-2024, the Uthukela District Municipality (809 098 people) in KwaZulu-Natal Province ranked number 30, while the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality (5 761 755 people) in the Gauteng Province ranked number one. As of mid-2024, the local municipality with the largest population was Polokwane in the Limpopo Province, with 912 752 people. In contrast, the least populous local municipality was Laingsburg in the Northern Cape Province, with 9 651 people, followed closely by Khâi-Ma (11 440 people), Kamiesberg (11 939 people), and Renosterberg (12 237 people), all also located in the Northern Cape Province.

The BMR report underscores the critical role of population projections in South Africa’s strategic planning for both public and private sectors. These projections are vital for the effective provision of health and social services, emphasising the need for sector-specific planning. A key strength of the BMR report is its ability to deliver population projections at granular levels, such as main- and sub-places. This level of detail supports the development of focused and targeted interventions and marketing strategies at localised levels, essential for optimising public and private sector initiatives. The detailed projections facilitate precise resource allocation, policy formulation, and strategic planning, thereby enhancing the overall efficacy of developmental programs and initiatives.

MID-2024 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA BY PROVINCE, DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY, LOCAL MUNICIPALITY, MAIN-PLACE AND SUB-PLACE (Research Report No 532) was compiled by Dr J Kembo (BMR Senior Researcher) and Prof CJ van Aardt (BMR Research Director).

Professional enquiries:

Dr J Kembo
Senior Researcher
Population Research Division
Bureau of Market Research (Pty) Ltd
University of South Africa
joshua.kembo@bmr.co.za