ECONOMIST OF THE YEAR CONSENSUS FORECASTS – JUNE 2024

The 2024 Economist of the Year competition hosted by the Bureau of Market Research and the University of South Africa is currently in full swing with 36 of South Africa’s top economists participating in the competition. The participating economists recently completed their June 2024 forecasts being displayed in the table below.

When comparing the June 2023 and 2024 forecasts the economists seem more positive about the 2024 economic outcomes than they were with respect to 2023. Of note is that the predicted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for June 2024 is more than three times as high as the June 2023 forecast. The 2024 GDP growth rate forecast is also anticipated to be 67% higher than the actual 2023 GDP growth rate. This reveals a high level of optimism and expectation that economic growth during 2024 will be markedly higher than that of 2023.

The participating economists during June 2024 also showed a lower expectation with respect to Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) outcomes when compared to June 2023. This is especially significant as this forecast places the 2024 CPI outcome within the SA Reserve Bank CPI target range of three to six percent, while the 2023 forecast was at the top of this range. South African consumers should welcome the fact that the participating economists forecasted during June 2024 that there will be a 50-basis point cut in the SARB Repurchase rate during 2024, which will bring some relief to indebted consumers.

When it comes to household consumption expenditure, the participating economists produced a less up-beat forecast during June 2024 than 12 months ago. This is a clear indication that the household sector is still under financial strain, despite the anticipated improvement in GDP growth, lower inflation and lower prime interest rates for 2024.

Overall, the consensus forecasts of the participating economists have been stable over the first five months of 2024. This suggest that, despite the elections and the uncertainty thereof, the domestic economy and the international economy (affecting the oil price, exchange rate and the long-term yields on government bonds) have not been subject to any significant shocks this year.

The BMR is eagerly awaiting the 2024 actual economic outcome results to determine whether the better forecast outcomes for June 2024 (as compared to June 2023) provide an accurate estimate of 2024 economic outcomes and that the increased optimism of the participating economists is warranted.

To view participating economists’ monthly forecasts, click here>

Professional enquiries:

Prof CJ van Aardt
Research Director
Bureau of Market Research (Pty) Ltd
University of South Africa
carel.vanaardt@bmr.co.za
082 950 4325