VERY INNOVATIVE MID-2022 POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA BY PROVINCE, DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY, LOCAL MUNICIPALITY AND MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT IN ORDER TO PROVIDE POPULATION STATISTICS AT A LOCAL LEVEL OF AGGREGATION

Dr Joshua Kembo (Senior Researcher), with inputs by Professor Carel van Aardt (Research Director) of the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) (Pty) Ltd at the University of South Africa (Unisa), released a report on population projections for South Africa by province, district municipality, local municipality and magisterial district as of mid-2022. This was done to provide updated population statistics at a very local level of aggregation, namely down to magisterial district level. By conducting population estimates down to such a local level of aggregation, it became clear on a granular geographical fashion, where the population concentrations are in South Africa.

The research estimates the total South African population as at mid-2022 to be 60.6 million persons which is in line with the newest Mid-Year population estimates from Statistics South Africa. The provincial breakdown indicates that Gauteng remains the most populous province with an estimated population of 16.1 million persons (26.5%), while Northern Cape remains the least populous province with an estimated total population size of 1.3 million people (2.2%), as at mid-2022. Also, the percentages of the population group composition are estimated to be 80.8% for Black Africans and 2.6% for Indians/Asians in mid‐2022. Besides the cohort analyses by province and population group, the report further provides population estimates by age–sex structure, with females projected to constitute 51% of the mid-2022 population. A gradual ageing population is also observed from the analyses.

The report further articulates that of the projected mid-2022 population, of the 20 largest metropolitan and district municipalities in South Africa as of mid-2022, Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality (938 172 persons) in North-West Province ranked number 20, while the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality (6 034 678 persons) in Gauteng Province ranked number one. As of mid‐2022, the largest local municipality in terms of population size was Emfuleni (814 038 persons) in the Gauteng Province while the least populous local municipality was Mier (6 825 persons) in the Northern Cape Province. The estimates further indicate that as of mid-2022, Soweto in Gauteng Province is the largest magisterial district with a projected population of 1 925 543 persons while Roodepoort in Gauteng Province is ranked 20th on the list of magisterial districts (577 326 persons).

The BMR report provides essential population estimates for South Africa which for use in planning, regarding inter alia health, service provision and fiscal aspects. Increasing population numbers imply that, in the future, there would be an increased demand for products and services, social and health services, electricity, water supply as well as toilet and waste disposal facilities, and this needs to be considered when planning in these sectors. Overall, the results of this study are particularly useful for the computation of various health indicators such as disease prevalence and mortality rates. These indicators are useful in the continued surveillance of COVID-19 as well as the vaccination programmes in South Africa. The additional analyses facilitating the provision of population estimates at magisterial level provide value-add in business planning in both the private and public sectors.

MID-2022 POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA BY PROVINCE, DISTRICT MUNCIPALITY, LOCAL MUNICIPALITY AND MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT (Research Report No 519) was compiled by Dr J Kembo (BMR Senior Researcher) with inputs from Prof CJ van Aardt (BMR Research Director).